Speaker: Robert Cole
Title: Uncertain Numbers: An approach for representing epistemic
uncertainty in Multi-Step Attack models

Abstract:

Probability theory is ideally suited to the representation of aleatory
uncertainty while interval-based methods are more suited to the
representation of epistemic uncertainty. In this presentation I will
present a proposed approach for handling both types of uncertainty in
the context of multi-step attacks. The concept of an uncertain number
will be introduced and methods for arithmetic combination of uncertain
numbers will be presented. Open research issues related to
representing and propagating uncertainty will also be raised.